By Investor’s Yak

Market Positive strength

• Next week’s end of month typically prompts window dressing stock buys by institutions.
• New high prices have been achieved by the NASDAQ and S&P500 this last week.
• Major indexes are above their 50 and 200 Day Moving Average (DMV).
• “Weekly” technical analysis action zone charts shows indices are positioned to go higher; longer term.

 
Influencers (positive or negative) – can either boost a market rally or spook the market into a pull back.

• “Daily” charts are a little stretched to the upside and may foster a pull back.
• Its Earnings season –prepare to exit a stock position on negative reaction to an earnings report.
• Fed meeting 28/29 April (Tue/Wed) – silence may not be golden.
• GDP report 29 April (Wed morning) for 1st quarter 2015 – shows real U.S. economic conditions.
• International economies in the news (ECB, Greece, China, etc.)

 
Market Negative weakness

• Some say “sell in May and go away”, but the NASDAQ frequently does well into June.
• If we have a pre-summer rally, watch influencers and ready yourself for a quick exit if necessary.

By Investor’s Yak

Daily chart action zones have turned negative for the major indexes (i.e. NASDAQ, S&P500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average). Combined with last Friday’s high volume down day suggests institutional investments are waning. Yet, most major indexes are holding price support at their 50 Day Moving Average (DMA). And their weekly chart action zones hint the market is not ready to go into a long term bear phase.

It might be wise to wait and watch, since daily charts indicate the near term days and/or week may increase losses. However, another down week might spark a positive “end of month” trading opportunity. Window dressing at months end may trigger combined daily and weekly action zone charts. Additionally, a regularly scheduled Federal Reserve (FED) end of month meeting will conclude on April 29. Positive guidance by the FED can stimulate institutional investments and bolster a nice rally. Still, everything could fall apart if institutions loose hope in the FEDs ability to influence growth.

By Investor’s Yak

Major indexes (i.e. NASDAQ, S&P500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average), are moving towards their third attempt at busting through all-time price high resistance. If achieved it could become a new bullish run and many individual stocks will follow. However, use caution in holding stock positions; retain winners if new highs are achieved, take profits when new price highs fail, and don’t let a small loss turn into a bigger loss.

By Investor’s Yak

CAUTION: Unless you are a risk taker, it might be prudent to wait things out.

Most industry sector charts are holding on to their 50 day moving average (DMA), but show signs of a potential pull back. Financials, Biotechnology, and Transportation indicators are extended beyond their Action Zone on both their near term daily charts and longer term weekly charts. While Utilities appear to be setting up for a buy, their 50 DMA is crossing below the 200 DMA; a negative or bearish sign.

On a positive note, Home Builders and Building Material industry charts are at their 50 DMA and in the Action Zone. And the major indexes (i.e. NASDAQ, S&P500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average), are setting up for future Action Zone possibilities. However, it might be sensible to wait on confirmation before jumping in.

By Investor’s Yak

1. Proceed with caution; the market appears to be struggling to get ahead. Instead of busting through to new high prices, the NASDAQ, S&P500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each took a beating last week.
2. However, the week ahead may advance if the typical end of month window dressing ensues. Window dressing occurs when big institutions prop up the stocks in their portfolios just in time to close their monthly books. This week will also mark the end of the 1st quarter and thereby reinforce window dressing strength.
3. Technical Analysis observations suggest the following strongest and weakest Industries:

Daily charts for the upcoming week indicate Medical, Transportation, and Financials should generally perform the best. But the longer term outlook weekly charts show Financials and Transportation stocks may be in for a struggle. And Home Builders are poised for a possible move in the future. See Price Characteristics for more information.

By Investor’s Yak

New all-time high prices were achieved by the NASDAQ last week. Watch for the S&P500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average to break their highs this week. New high prices should keep the market bullish for the near term. But a correction could occur if new high prices are rejected and a down turn occurs.

By Investor’s Yak

Watch market reaction to 17-18 March Federal Reserve interest rate statement. An interest rate hike could trigger a selloff in the market. Alternatively, continuing the present rate should sit well with the market. And any surprise rate decrease would almost guarantee a rally. Many times, the FED reports their directive at 2 PM on the last meeting day. Ready yourself for some action.